By using these free templates, you can create professional scenario plans in just minutes.
Crafting scenarios[ edit ] These combinations and permutations of fact and related social changes are called " scenarios ". The scenarios usually include plausible, but unexpectedly important situations and problems that exist in some small form in the present day.
Any particular scenario is unlikely. However, future studies analysts select scenario features so they are both possible and uncomfortable.
Scenario planning help policy-makers and firms to anticipate change, prepare a response and create more robust strategies  . Scenarios help a firm to anticipate the impact of different scenarios identify weaknesses. When disclosed years in advance, these weaknesses can be avoided or their impacts reduced more effectively than if similar real-life problems were considered under duress of an emergency.
For example, a company may discover that it needs to change contractual terms to protect against a new class of risks, or collect cash reserves to purchase anticipated technologies or equipment. Flexible business continuity plans with " PREsponse protocols " help cope with similar operational problems and deliver measurable future value-added.
Zero-sum game scenarios[ edit ] Strategic military intelligence organizations also construct scenarios. The methods and organizations are almost identical, except that scenario planning is applied to a wider variety of problems than merely military and political problems.
As in military intelligence, the chief challenge of scenario planning is to find out the real needs of policy-makers, when policy-makers may not themselves know what they need to know, or may not know how to describe the information that they really want.
Good analysts design wargames so that policy makers have great flexibility and freedom to adapt their simulated organisations .
Then these simulated organizations are "stressed" by the scenarios as a game plays out. Usually, particular groups of facts become more clearly important.
This chief value of scenario planning is that it allows policy-makers to make and learn from mistakes without risking career-limiting failures in real life. Further, policymakers can make these mistakes in a safe, unthreatening, game-like environment, while responding to a wide variety of concretely presented situations based on facts.
This is an opportunity to "rehearse the future", an opportunity that does not present itself in day-to-day operations where every action and decision counts.
How military scenario planning or scenario thinking is done[ edit ] Decide on the key question to be answered by the analysis. By doing this, it is possible to assess whether scenario planning is preferred over the other methods.
If the question is based on small changes or a very small number of elements, other more formalized methods may be more useful. Set the time and scope of the analysis.
Take into consideration how quickly changes have happened in the past, and try to assess to what degree it is possible to predict common trends in demographics, product life cycles.
A usual timeframe can be five to 10 years. Decide who will be affected and have an interest in the possible outcomes. Identify their current interests, whether and why these interests have changed over time in the past.
Map basic trends and driving forces. This includes industry, economic, political, technological, legal, and societal trends. Assess to what degree these trends will affect your research question. Describe each trend, how and why it will affect the organisation.For a consultant’s approach to scenario planning, see: T.F.
Mandel, “Scenarios and Corporate Strategy: Planning in Uncertain Times” (Menlo Park, California: SRI International, Research Report .
For simple cases of scenario management, a standard Scenario Summary report is usually sufficient. If you have many scenarios defined with multiple result cells, however, you may find that a Scenario PivotTable provides more flexibility.
Scenario Planning Example - Main Topic and Details Model This scenario planning example can be used in many situations.
You can easily change the number of the list shapes through Edraw. For an excellent example of strategic planning at work, consider the following case study. Cisco and Monitor Global Business Network set out to develop scenarios that answered important questions about the future of the Internet.
The following example may be relevant to your organization. Although. The use and abuse of scenarios By Charles Roxburgh The use and abuse of scenarios the pioneer in scenario planning, described these as “predetermined outcomes” and captured the essence of this idea with the saying, “It has rained in the mountains, so it will flood in the plains.” for example), but only at the margin.
Sometimes. Scenario planning is a tool that helps with all of these elements. By examining alternative possible futures, business leaders can prepare for—and stay ahead of—the constantly changing marketplace.